The closest I have ever seen to this scenario was in 2004, when MS dominated everything. He won the first 5 races, the Jarno Trulli won the 6th race. From here Michael won the next 7 races, making it 12 wins out of 13 possible. He only won one more race after that, namely the 17th in Japan.
In 2002 he did a similar feat, securing the first 5 out 6 wins, losing 1 to Ralf in the 2nd race, then losing the 7th to DC, then taking the 8th win, and missing out the 9th to Rubens at Nürburgring. Michael won the 10th race at Silverstone, and sealed the championship in the 11th race at Magny Cours. That was the reason the point system was changed - to prevent such an early closure to the championship, despite massive domination.
Now with the medal system in place, let's see how this would pan out. In 2002 there was 17 races, so he would need 9 gold medals to seal the deal. (Alternately you could say that 8 wins would suffice, provided he could muster at commanding lead in Silver medals to his rivals. However, our theoretical foundation established before this post denies that option).
His main rival was Rubens in the end, but it was JPM at the time of the championship being decided. Michael had lost 3 wins when the championship was decided, and none of them to JPM or and only 1 to Rubens. So with the medal system, the championship would have been closed at Silverstone, ONE RACE EARLIER than with the point system (10-6-4-3-2-1) used back then.
In 2004 there was 18 races on the Calender. So Michael would need 10 gold medals to seal the championship. That would have happened in the 11th Grand Prix at Silverstone (alternately you could say that 9 wins would suffice, provided he could muster at commanding lead in Silver medals to his rivals. However, our theoretical foundation established before this post denies that option). Michael's closest rival was his teammate Rubens. At the medal championship deciding race (the British) Michael would have 100 points, with both the pre-2003 point system and the post-2003 points system. Rubens would have had 52 points (-2003) or 72 points (2003-).
With the old points system, the suspense would be kept 2 more race as Michael won the German grand prix and Rubens finished out of the points, and Michael also won the Hungarian Grand Prix with Rubens finishing 2nd. In actual fact, Michael had to wait 3 races, sealing the championship at Spa. I doubt anyone was in championship suspense by this time of year, as Michael only needed 2 more points at Spa, regardless of what else would happen for the rest of the season.
2002 was a record year. Never before had the championship been decided to so quickly. Never had a driver won so many races in a season before - a record Michael already held from 2001. In fact Michael finished on the podium in EVERY race in 2002. He broke his record for most wins in a season again in 2004.
So if we take the most extreme cases there have been in the history of F1:
- the medals system would have decided the championship 1 race earlier in 2002 compared to what actually happened. In no way did the season allow for anyone else to even come close to Michael, so he would have won that championship, no matter what points system was used. If you look at the points, there was hardly any championship suspense left after the 10th race anyway.
10th (GB) 86/33 [JPM]
11th (FRA) 96/36 [JPM]
- the medals system would have decided the championship at the 11th race in 2004. That is 2 races faster than with the pre-2003 points system, and 3 races faster than the post-2003 points system. Again, in no way did the season allow for anyone else to even come close to Michael, so he would have won that championship, no matter what points system was used. If you look at the points, there was hardly any championship suspense left after the 11th race anyway.
11th (GB) 100/72
12th (Ger) 110/72
13th (Hun) 120/78
14th (Spa) 128/84
So... I stand firm on the position that, opposition against the medal system, because: "Its a stupid idea which can end the title battle by the mid-season.", is both a silly and self-defeating objection.
It is a much better position to hold that the medals system is a stupid idea, full stop, which is where I stand.
It's only after we've lost everything, that we are free to do anything.
Edited 8 time(s). Last edit at 12/13/2008 12:23PM by Morbid.