The greatest financial crisis the world has ever seen. !!BREAKING NEWS!! You saw it here first!!!!
Posted by mortal
power does indeed corrupt.
Not a truer word was said.
[www.mediafire.com] Some say you should click it, you know you want to. [www.gp4central.com] <----GP4 Central
Not a truer word was said.
[www.mediafire.com] Some say you should click it, you know you want to.
[www.gp4central.com] <----GP4 CentralThe Dancer
Democracy lies with the ashes of the Ancient Greeks,
Or under long eroded heels of the invading sons of Romulus,
But it breathes not on this land nor in this time,
Yet we persist slumbered in the illusion.
Mankind blindly strides the green mile,
As leaders enveloped in swaying flags
gorge on rights and freedoms for our supposed protection;
Hacking at our dreams and futures.
The leaders play their instruments,
An unharmonious cacophony bellows from the orchestra,
Fanning flames for both sides of the argument,
Another teat added to duality, delivering separation,
How we suckle like ravenous pigs,
Justified in our lopsided stance as we prepare for the slaughter,
Fattened up by the loop that traverses all of history;
The drawing of the line.
Do not mistaken me,
There is a line that divides mankind,
But it is not colour, creed, race nor religion,
Nor whatever else we willingly offer.
In each and every one of us,
Drawn by our own hands
is the line that always keeps
one’s self on the right side of Man and Beast.
The given line stands vindicated,
For it is not far from our individual line;
And we get grouped by the proximity of individual lines to theirs.
This line must be defended,
Our survival depends on it,
And those on the wrong side of the line,
Are not human.
The line to divide me and you
if not chosen by us in our blinkered state,
will get programmed into us,
as we unknowingly synchronize ourselves
to discordant wavelengths.
The real Me within is buried under flesh and ego,
As I am bombarded mercilessly in this slumbered state.
Cavalry after cavalry reinforce beliefs and attitudes,
And trample any seedlings of sovereign thoughts.
So stealth bombers
slip under the radar,
the damage is never known
but through me it is shown.
An agenda compliant media owned by a select few,
Give me the instructional ‘news’ in between the important stuff,
Like whose nipple fell out at which award,
And as long as I get that;
I. Am. Happy.
Indoctrinated en masse,
Then watch us all keep each other in check,
Our family, friends, work colleagues, course mates………..
Countless sheep and not a dog in sight.
For even in the illusion of freedom
we refuse to exercise it fully,
And a person will do what it takes
to stay on the 'right' side of the line.
If life is like a box of chocolate,
Reality is a pick and choose confectionary,
Where we determine what is real and fake,
For we filter blinkered snapshots of infinity
to consolidate our finite narrow view.
Speculation becomes certainty,
Alleged becomes fact,
A lie becomes true,
And the poisoner behind is the taster in front.
This endearing trait of ours is known
and harnessed relentlessly;
As we are coupled to the chosen line.
It has been said
Divided we fall,
But to be grouped in this way;
United we fall together.
Enemies real or not are presented to us,
And we rally round the flag he or she is draped in,
Call dissenters unpatriotic,
And let loose the dogs of war.
Then the leaders state “Mission Accomplished”,
Exit the stage when it is time,
And along comes another.
Left and right doesn’t change a thing,
other than the face of the leader and the colour of the party.
Different arms are controlled by the same thoughts.
Primed as all our ‘options’ are,
Conveyor belt of endless genetically modified Pinocchio’s,
To carry the baton along.
We fall for the empty promises,
Our inability to learn is matched only by the absurdity
That the better world we yearn for
Will be made for us.
In a world of billions
it’s the same gene pool that crops up again and again to lead us.
Distant cousins on distant lands,
take both my hands;
Father to son would be too obvious,
well it should have been.
And these leaders create situations that create danger,
Then bring in law after law,
Danger remains freedom fades,
And ironically we give it up freely.
For leaders to get at their real enemy,
They need to present enemies real or not.
Why?
If there is no one to fight,
There is no one for them to use
against me and you.
The greatest threat to his own rule,
Comes from his ‘own’ people,
For the true enemy to any leader;
Is his ‘own’ people.
But me and you,
Why can’t we get along?
If we are pricked do we not bleed?
Tolerance I hear you cry?
To put up with???????
That my ears should hear the callous smirk of tolerance,
And the dry laugh that erupts from my chest,
shredding my throat.
When we can not even put up with those we love;
How our children grow up strangers under the same roof,
Lonely and misunderstood,
Brought up by TV and the internet,
While our discarded parents stare at echoes in the nest,
Or sat waiting to die in care homes;
And us, with the wrong priorities in our hands
and treading with all our might,
Let tolerance return to whence it came,
For I will not tolerate tolerance, it is not needed,
What is needed is change.
Change our leaders? Why?
We have got the leaders we deserve.
No?
Let me say once again, we have got who we deserve………..
Our leaders are a reflection of us,
They are a reflection of a society we are a part of.
We criticize what we are,
We criticize what we are afraid to acknowledge in ourselves,
And we project and deflect.
We criticize the very things that made us open our eyes,
Their very nature of extreme polarity instigated our journey,
For before them we were blind,
We were content, and content people don’t do a thing,
We just sit and wallow in it;
For without them,
Who would set sail to the undiscovered country; the truth?
You still say leaders? Why? Because they have the power,
and the control and we have nothing for they took it all from us?
No they didn’t,
We let them have it,
We gave it willingly,
Because we are led.
If you are not willing to lead yourself as a sovereign entity,
Then you will lead yourself as a programmed one,
And if you are programmed,
Rest assured it isn’t your shadow that follows you.
Leaders are not to blame, for the blame lies on our shoulders,
Society is not theirs to create, for without us
they are emperors in empty palaces.
We want to change the steps,
but we are dancing to the discordant melody
We want to change what we hear,
but we are playing the cacophony.
This is our creation;
Reality is our painting.
Every one of us
has painted our own stroke on the canvas.
Yet we look at the results and see different things.
We want to change the painting, but how?
We can not change reality by
imposing anything on anybody else.
To do so means we sow the seeds of the fall of
any society that decrees it must change.
The words may carry the sweet scent
of peaceful summer meadows,
but rest assured in the winter of discontent
these will be Somme’s of the future.
The buildings of the future are built on the foundations of the past.
Each one of us has a brick, and it is up to us what we build.
But we change nothing by changing society.
For paradise is not something that changes us into good people,
we don’t go to heaven and then become good.
How can heaven even have people like me and you in it?
And if society is a building, a painting;
which makes it a physical manifestation of our thoughts,
beliefs, state of being;
then we are looking in the wrong direction.
The gates of heaven are not on the outside,
They are within.
What we build on the outside is a
reflection of the inner.
So...........that endless pointing finger of ours,
Should it not be pointed at the root of it all?
Should I not make the change that I so sorely want to see in this world,
by changing the only thing I have the right to change on my own;
by changing the only thing I can truly change on my own;
by changing the person who dances to the cacophony?
Me
Author Notes
"Winter of Discontent" (Steinbeck J., 2001,The Winter Of Our Discontent,Penguin Modern Classics).
The original source is actually Richard the Third Act 1, Scene 1, 1-4
"Richard:
Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of York;
And all the clouds that low'r'd upon our house
In the deep bosom of the ocean buried."
(Shakespeare W., 1623, Richard The Third)
"Dogs of War" (Shakespeare W., 1623, Julius Caesar)
"Distant cousins on distant lands,
take both my hands" Paraphrasing the song Golden Brown by The Stranglers.
"If we are pricked do we not bleed?" Based on the speech ""If you prick us do we not bleed? If you tickle us do we not laugh? If you poison us do we not die? And if you wrong us, shall we not revenge?" by Shylock. ( Shakespeare W., 1623, Merchant of Venice)
“United we stand, divided we fall” Phrase from “The Four Oxen and the Lion” (Aesop’s Fables, 620-560 BC)
“Life is like a box of Chocolate” Phrase from movie: Forrest Gump (1994) Based on a novel by the same name (Groom W, 1986, Forrest Gump, Washington Square Press)
[www.mediafire.com] Some say you should click it, you know you want to. [www.gp4central.com] <----GP4 Central
Democracy lies with the ashes of the Ancient Greeks,
Or under long eroded heels of the invading sons of Romulus,
But it breathes not on this land nor in this time,
Yet we persist slumbered in the illusion.
Mankind blindly strides the green mile,
As leaders enveloped in swaying flags
gorge on rights and freedoms for our supposed protection;
Hacking at our dreams and futures.
The leaders play their instruments,
An unharmonious cacophony bellows from the orchestra,
Fanning flames for both sides of the argument,
Another teat added to duality, delivering separation,
How we suckle like ravenous pigs,
Justified in our lopsided stance as we prepare for the slaughter,
Fattened up by the loop that traverses all of history;
The drawing of the line.
Do not mistaken me,
There is a line that divides mankind,
But it is not colour, creed, race nor religion,
Nor whatever else we willingly offer.
In each and every one of us,
Drawn by our own hands
is the line that always keeps
one’s self on the right side of Man and Beast.
The given line stands vindicated,
For it is not far from our individual line;
And we get grouped by the proximity of individual lines to theirs.
This line must be defended,
Our survival depends on it,
And those on the wrong side of the line,
Are not human.
The line to divide me and you
if not chosen by us in our blinkered state,
will get programmed into us,
as we unknowingly synchronize ourselves
to discordant wavelengths.
The real Me within is buried under flesh and ego,
As I am bombarded mercilessly in this slumbered state.
Cavalry after cavalry reinforce beliefs and attitudes,
And trample any seedlings of sovereign thoughts.
So stealth bombers
slip under the radar,
the damage is never known
but through me it is shown.
An agenda compliant media owned by a select few,
Give me the instructional ‘news’ in between the important stuff,
Like whose nipple fell out at which award,
And as long as I get that;
I. Am. Happy.
Indoctrinated en masse,
Then watch us all keep each other in check,
Our family, friends, work colleagues, course mates………..
Countless sheep and not a dog in sight.
For even in the illusion of freedom
we refuse to exercise it fully,
And a person will do what it takes
to stay on the 'right' side of the line.
If life is like a box of chocolate,
Reality is a pick and choose confectionary,
Where we determine what is real and fake,
For we filter blinkered snapshots of infinity
to consolidate our finite narrow view.
Speculation becomes certainty,
Alleged becomes fact,
A lie becomes true,
And the poisoner behind is the taster in front.
This endearing trait of ours is known
and harnessed relentlessly;
As we are coupled to the chosen line.
It has been said
Divided we fall,
But to be grouped in this way;
United we fall together.
Enemies real or not are presented to us,
And we rally round the flag he or she is draped in,
Call dissenters unpatriotic,
And let loose the dogs of war.
Then the leaders state “Mission Accomplished”,
Exit the stage when it is time,
And along comes another.
Left and right doesn’t change a thing,
other than the face of the leader and the colour of the party.
Different arms are controlled by the same thoughts.
Primed as all our ‘options’ are,
Conveyor belt of endless genetically modified Pinocchio’s,
To carry the baton along.
We fall for the empty promises,
Our inability to learn is matched only by the absurdity
That the better world we yearn for
Will be made for us.
In a world of billions
it’s the same gene pool that crops up again and again to lead us.
Distant cousins on distant lands,
take both my hands;
Father to son would be too obvious,
well it should have been.
And these leaders create situations that create danger,
Then bring in law after law,
Danger remains freedom fades,
And ironically we give it up freely.
For leaders to get at their real enemy,
They need to present enemies real or not.
Why?
If there is no one to fight,
There is no one for them to use
against me and you.
The greatest threat to his own rule,
Comes from his ‘own’ people,
For the true enemy to any leader;
Is his ‘own’ people.
But me and you,
Why can’t we get along?
If we are pricked do we not bleed?
Tolerance I hear you cry?
To put up with???????
That my ears should hear the callous smirk of tolerance,
And the dry laugh that erupts from my chest,
shredding my throat.
When we can not even put up with those we love;
How our children grow up strangers under the same roof,
Lonely and misunderstood,
Brought up by TV and the internet,
While our discarded parents stare at echoes in the nest,
Or sat waiting to die in care homes;
And us, with the wrong priorities in our hands
and treading with all our might,
Let tolerance return to whence it came,
For I will not tolerate tolerance, it is not needed,
What is needed is change.
Change our leaders? Why?
We have got the leaders we deserve.
No?
Let me say once again, we have got who we deserve………..
Our leaders are a reflection of us,
They are a reflection of a society we are a part of.
We criticize what we are,
We criticize what we are afraid to acknowledge in ourselves,
And we project and deflect.
We criticize the very things that made us open our eyes,
Their very nature of extreme polarity instigated our journey,
For before them we were blind,
We were content, and content people don’t do a thing,
We just sit and wallow in it;
For without them,
Who would set sail to the undiscovered country; the truth?
You still say leaders? Why? Because they have the power,
and the control and we have nothing for they took it all from us?
No they didn’t,
We let them have it,
We gave it willingly,
Because we are led.
If you are not willing to lead yourself as a sovereign entity,
Then you will lead yourself as a programmed one,
And if you are programmed,
Rest assured it isn’t your shadow that follows you.
Leaders are not to blame, for the blame lies on our shoulders,
Society is not theirs to create, for without us
they are emperors in empty palaces.
We want to change the steps,
but we are dancing to the discordant melody
We want to change what we hear,
but we are playing the cacophony.
This is our creation;
Reality is our painting.
Every one of us
has painted our own stroke on the canvas.
Yet we look at the results and see different things.
We want to change the painting, but how?
We can not change reality by
imposing anything on anybody else.
To do so means we sow the seeds of the fall of
any society that decrees it must change.
The words may carry the sweet scent
of peaceful summer meadows,
but rest assured in the winter of discontent
these will be Somme’s of the future.
The buildings of the future are built on the foundations of the past.
Each one of us has a brick, and it is up to us what we build.
But we change nothing by changing society.
For paradise is not something that changes us into good people,
we don’t go to heaven and then become good.
How can heaven even have people like me and you in it?
And if society is a building, a painting;
which makes it a physical manifestation of our thoughts,
beliefs, state of being;
then we are looking in the wrong direction.
The gates of heaven are not on the outside,
They are within.
What we build on the outside is a
reflection of the inner.
So...........that endless pointing finger of ours,
Should it not be pointed at the root of it all?
Should I not make the change that I so sorely want to see in this world,
by changing the only thing I have the right to change on my own;
by changing the only thing I can truly change on my own;
by changing the person who dances to the cacophony?
Me
Author Notes
"Winter of Discontent" (Steinbeck J., 2001,The Winter Of Our Discontent,Penguin Modern Classics).
The original source is actually Richard the Third Act 1, Scene 1, 1-4
"Richard:
Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of York;
And all the clouds that low'r'd upon our house
In the deep bosom of the ocean buried."
(Shakespeare W., 1623, Richard The Third)
"Dogs of War" (Shakespeare W., 1623, Julius Caesar)
"Distant cousins on distant lands,
take both my hands" Paraphrasing the song Golden Brown by The Stranglers.
"If we are pricked do we not bleed?" Based on the speech ""If you prick us do we not bleed? If you tickle us do we not laugh? If you poison us do we not die? And if you wrong us, shall we not revenge?" by Shylock. ( Shakespeare W., 1623, Merchant of Venice)
“United we stand, divided we fall” Phrase from “The Four Oxen and the Lion” (Aesop’s Fables, 620-560 BC)
“Life is like a box of Chocolate” Phrase from movie: Forrest Gump (1994) Based on a novel by the same name (Groom W, 1986, Forrest Gump, Washington Square Press)
[www.mediafire.com] Some say you should click it, you know you want to.
[www.gp4central.com] <----GP4 CentralMaybe silly what im going to write:
Why do we need a monetary system?
Why do we need banks?
Why their has to greedy people accumulate wealth? If so why do we allow them?
Why cant we just live and work to better ourselfs?
I would like to see some answers in good way.
07 No Tsm Track Pack__GPGSL08 Mod__range">97 TeamArt
Tutorial how to compile a No Csm Mod
Why do we need a monetary system?
Why do we need banks?
Why their has to greedy people accumulate wealth? If so why do we allow them?
Why cant we just live and work to better ourselfs?
I would like to see some answers in good way.
Tutorial how to compile a No Csm Mod
US, UK, Eurozone Banks Face Meltdown ~ Will the Euro Survive? New Global Currency?
[www.globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com]
US, UK, Eurozone Banks Face Meltdown
With all the hype from various US dollar bears about the crisis with US banks, few on this side of the Atlantic are paying any attention to happenings in Europe.
For those who look, a strong case can be made that European banks are as bad off if not much worse off than their US counterparts.
"The unfolding debt drama in Russia, Ukraine, and the EU states of Eastern Europe has reached acute danger point" says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown.
Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay – or roll over – $400bn this year, equal to a third of the region's GDP. Good luck. The credit window has slammed shut.
Not even Russia can easily cover the $500bn dollar debts of its oligarchs while oil remains near $33 a barrel. The budget is based on Urals crude at $95. Russia has bled 36pc of its foreign reserves since August defending the rouble.
"This is the largest run on a currency in history," said Mr Jen.
In Poland, 60pc of mortgages are in Swiss francs. The zloty has just halved against the franc. Hungary, the Balkans, the Baltics, and Ukraine are all suffering variants of this story. As an act of collective folly – by lenders and borrowers – it matches America's sub-prime debacle. There is a crucial difference, however. European banks are on the hook for both. US banks are not.
Almost all East bloc debts are owed to West Europe, especially Austrian, Swedish, Greek, Italian, and Belgian banks. En plus, Europeans account for an astonishing 74pc of the entire $4.9 trillion portfolio of loans to emerging markets.
They are five times more exposed to this latest bust than American or Japanese banks, and they are 50pc more leveraged (IMF data).
Spain is up to its neck in Latin America, which has belatedly joined the slump (Mexico's car output fell 51pc in January, and Brazil lost 650,000 jobs in one month). Britain and Switzerland are up to their necks in Asia.
Whether it takes months, or just weeks, the world is going to discover that Europe's financial system is sunk, and that there is no EU Federal Reserve yet ready to act as a lender of last resort or to flood the markets with emergency stimulus.
East Europe that is blowing up right now. Erik Berglof, EBRD's chief economist, told me the region may need €400bn in help to cover loans and prop up the credit system.
Europe's governments are making matters worse. Some are pressuring their banks to pull back, undercutting subsidiaries in East Europe. Athens has ordered Greek banks to pull out of the Balkans.
The sums needed are beyond the limits of the IMF, which has already bailed out Hungary, Ukraine, Latvia, Belarus, Iceland, and Pakistan – and Turkey next – and is fast exhausting its own $200bn (€155bn) reserve. We are nearing the point where the IMF may have to print money for the world, using arcane powers to issue Special Drawing Rights. (money out of nothing, debt based!!!)
Its $16bn rescue of Ukraine has unraveled. The country – facing a 12pc contraction in GDP after the collapse of steel prices – is hurtling towards default, leaving Unicredit, Raffeisen and ING in the lurch. Pakistan wants another $7.6bn. Latvia's central bank governor has declared his economy "clinically dead" after it shrank 10.5pc in the fourth quarter. Protesters have smashed the treasury and stormed parliament.
Somehow the myth persists that the Euro will be the world's reserve currency. The "somehow" usually stems from those who believe in the tooth fairy and global decoupling while staring straight into a magic mirror that only highlights the problems in the US. Here is a better question....
Can The Euro Survive?
John Mauldin explores that question in his latest Outside The Box: Can The Euro Survive?
Milton Friedman famously predicted that the euro would not last past their first economic crisis. This week we look at commentary by Niels Jensen that explores the news from Euroland. Can the euro survive? He explores a number of options which are most definitely not on the radar screen for most investors. It is good to get a perspective from those outside of our own back yard. Note that when he says "our country" he is referring to Great Britain.
Do BRICs (and Germans) Eat PIGS?
When the euro was introduced about ten years ago, the pessimists didn't give it much chance of reaching its tenth anniversary. The euro, or so the argument went, was doomed from the outset because of the wide spread in economic performance and discipline amongst the member countries. At one end you had, and still have, the highly disciplined, but also slow growing, economies of Germany and the Netherlands. At the other end you find the faster growing but poorly disciplined countries such as Spain and Greece. As icing on the cake, you also had, and still have, countries that lack in both departments, such as Italy, making it difficult for the union to 'gel' - well, according to sceptics.
What they [the skeptics] failed to realise was that Europe, together with the rest of the world, was about to enter a period of unprecedented prosperity. The good times would not only gloss over the deeper problems, but the euro would actually go from strength to strength to a point where it now threatens to unseat the US dollar as the premier reserve currency of the world. It is therefore perhaps a mystery to some of you, why one should question the longer term viability of the euro. That is nevertheless what I intend to do.
The problem, as I have already alluded to, is poor discipline amongst several of the member states. Ever heard of the four PIGS? This less than flattering acronym stands for Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, four members of the euro zone which are all in much deeper trouble than they are prepared to admit.
Since the introduction of the euro, the PIGS have failed miserably to keep up with Germany on this measure of competitiveness. So has Ireland by the way, hence its current predicament.
Another issue, which is potentially even more destabilising for the euro longer term, is the massive liabilities facing Europe as its population ages.
Greece is clearly facing the biggest challenge. Public debt, which currently stands at about 95% of GDP, will grow to a whopping 555% of GDP by 2050 if the current pension and social security programme is left unchanged. The Greek government is painfully aware of this and have been working on several new initiatives. It was the passing of one of those new laws which caused the riots in Athens before Christmas.
A third problem facing Europe is the sheer scale of the banking crisis. Although this is not just a European problem, European countries are probably worse off than the US because a larger part of European debt has to be financed externally. As you can see from chart 1, more than $2 trillion of European and U.S. bank debt needs to be re-financed before the end of next year. Unless there is a material improvement in market conditions, re-financing at such a massive scale is simply not doable.
Maturing Bank Securities in 2009/10 (USD)
Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart published a research paper about a month ago which should be mandatory reading for all investors2. They have studied every single banking crisis of the past 100 years and reach some rather unsettling conclusions. As they point out: "Broadly speaking, financial crises are protracted affairs".
Following a banking crisis, asset prices fall more and for longer than most investors realise. So do output and unemployment. Most importantly, though, the real value of government debt explodes but not for the reasons you might think. Yes, the bailout costs are significant, but the main driver of rising government debt is actually the subsequent collapse of tax income. [Mish note: See article for charts]
So when we are told that the bailout cost, although large, is still manageable, it is only half the story. The loss of tax revenue is another nail in the coffin and could lead to a dramatic - and unpredicted - rise in public debt. Have you heard any mention of that from your government?
In Frankfurt, the 'eurocrats' are currently congratulating themselves that they, through strict monetary discipline, killed inflation in the aftermath of last year's explosion in commodity prices. The reality, however, is that the credit crunch killed inflation - they didn't - and Europe is now at a junction where even the smallest policy mistake could be very expensive indeed.
So, could all this lead to the destruction of the euro? Could the currency union actually break up? It is not that the risk to the PIGS has not been recognised by bond investors. As you can see from chart 3 below, investors in long dated Greek government bonds now earn about 2.5% more than they do by investing in correspondent German bunds.
PIGS Sovereign Debt Spreads over Germany
On the other hand, I may disappoint one or two readers (I will certainly disappoint Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Daily Telegraph who appears to have declared war on the euro), but I firmly believe that the euro will almost certainly survive the current crisis. I am much more worried about some of the member countries.
There is nothing in the Maastricht treaty which prevents a member country from leaving the euro, yet the decision to join is effectively irreversible. There are a number of reasons for this, the most important being economic costs. Take Italy which has a history of compensating for lost competitiveness through regular devaluations. If Berlusconi did the unthinkable tomorrow (sorry - nothing is unthinkable in Berlusconi's world), Italy's borrowing costs would explode. My guess is that bond investors would demand double digit returns on a Lira denominated bond to compensate for the dramatically increased devaluation risk. Already in a precarious fiscal position, Italy could quite simply not afford that.
So, if any country were to leave the euro, it would more likely be from a position of strength, and only one country possesses enough strength to pull that off in the current environment. That country is Germany. And, although the euro is not particularly popular in Germany, I believe it is extremely unlikely for Germany to make such a move unilaterally.
At the same time, the fact that the euro has saved the bacon of more than one country in recent months - Ireland being the most obvious example - should not be ignored. For this very reason, the euro membership is actually far more likely to grow than to shrink as a result of the financial and economic crisis engulfing the world. The issue the EU has to deal with is whether the new applicants should actually be welcomed. Most of those who would want to join will bring plenty of baggage.
Another possible outcome, which you hear almost no mention of, is the possibility of a new Transatlantic currency. When I mention this possibility, everyone laughs, but think about it for a second. The economic crisis on both sides of the Atlantic is enormous. Both are resorting to the same formulas - large fiscal stimulus and quantitative easing (a word invented by central bankers because 'printing money' smacks too much of Zimbabwe). There is a real risk that the entire financial and monetary system on either side of the pond needs to be re-designed. If that were to happen, I am pretty confident that the Fed and the ECB would at least sit down and discuss the possibility of a joint currency. That would also allow the UK to join a currency union without too much egg on its battered face.
In the short to medium term, though, there is no such bailout on the horizon. D-day is now firmly on the horizon. As I see things, it is not inconceivable that a member country could be forced to default on its sovereign debt.
Another, and more likely, outcome is the possibility of one or more member countries coming under EU administration. The recent crowd trouble in Greece could very well turn out to be the dry run for much bigger and more organised labour market unrest across Europe as reality begins to bite.
For the time being, though, European governments continue to be in denial. When the IMF recently recommended that Spain implement various structural reforms, the idea was flatly rejected by Prime Minister Zapatero. In the meantime, you can sit back and prepare for the drama to unfold. Very simplistically, it is a choice between Zimbabwe and Japan. Our central bankers can choose to monetize their way out of the current slump and run the risk of much higher interest rates and a rapidly deteriorating currency like Zimbabwe or they can show fiscal discipline and accept perhaps ten years of below par growth a la Japan. Or they can find the delicate balance in between the two and everyone will live happily thereafter. But that requires both skill and luck.
Those are long snips from a very long article that is worth a read in entirety. In aggregate, my take is that the Eurozone, the UK, and the US all face similar problems, and many countries are in far worse shape than the US. And while Italy is likely to do a lot of sabre rattling, none of the PIGS are apt to be so foolish as to leave the European Union.
However, there is going to be increasing pressure on Germany to bailout the other Eurozone countries yet there is no reason to think they will (or should) oblige.
One of the consequences of the Mad Race to ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) is that Japan, the UK, US, and EU all have interest rates at or approaching zero. Thus a big reason to enter various carry trades has gone up in smoke.
On the plate now is a meltdown possibility in US banks, UK banks, and Eurozone banks as the entire global banking system is insolvent. Conceivably a framework for a new transatlantic or even global currency could come out of such a meltdown.
However, it is impossible to agree to a solution when Central Bankers do not even understand the problem. The problem is micromanagement of interests rates and currencies by central bankers in conjunction with fractional reserve lending and deficit spending everywhere. Right now, president Obama, Bernanke, and nearly every politician and central bank in the world is focused on curing symptoms instead of curing the disease.
[www.mediafire.com] Some say you should click it, you know you want to. [www.gp4central.com] <----GP4 Central
[www.globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com]
US, UK, Eurozone Banks Face Meltdown
With all the hype from various US dollar bears about the crisis with US banks, few on this side of the Atlantic are paying any attention to happenings in Europe.
For those who look, a strong case can be made that European banks are as bad off if not much worse off than their US counterparts.
"The unfolding debt drama in Russia, Ukraine, and the EU states of Eastern Europe has reached acute danger point" says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown.
Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay – or roll over – $400bn this year, equal to a third of the region's GDP. Good luck. The credit window has slammed shut.
Not even Russia can easily cover the $500bn dollar debts of its oligarchs while oil remains near $33 a barrel. The budget is based on Urals crude at $95. Russia has bled 36pc of its foreign reserves since August defending the rouble.
"This is the largest run on a currency in history," said Mr Jen.
In Poland, 60pc of mortgages are in Swiss francs. The zloty has just halved against the franc. Hungary, the Balkans, the Baltics, and Ukraine are all suffering variants of this story. As an act of collective folly – by lenders and borrowers – it matches America's sub-prime debacle. There is a crucial difference, however. European banks are on the hook for both. US banks are not.
Almost all East bloc debts are owed to West Europe, especially Austrian, Swedish, Greek, Italian, and Belgian banks. En plus, Europeans account for an astonishing 74pc of the entire $4.9 trillion portfolio of loans to emerging markets.
They are five times more exposed to this latest bust than American or Japanese banks, and they are 50pc more leveraged (IMF data).
Spain is up to its neck in Latin America, which has belatedly joined the slump (Mexico's car output fell 51pc in January, and Brazil lost 650,000 jobs in one month). Britain and Switzerland are up to their necks in Asia.
Whether it takes months, or just weeks, the world is going to discover that Europe's financial system is sunk, and that there is no EU Federal Reserve yet ready to act as a lender of last resort or to flood the markets with emergency stimulus.
East Europe that is blowing up right now. Erik Berglof, EBRD's chief economist, told me the region may need €400bn in help to cover loans and prop up the credit system.
Europe's governments are making matters worse. Some are pressuring their banks to pull back, undercutting subsidiaries in East Europe. Athens has ordered Greek banks to pull out of the Balkans.
The sums needed are beyond the limits of the IMF, which has already bailed out Hungary, Ukraine, Latvia, Belarus, Iceland, and Pakistan – and Turkey next – and is fast exhausting its own $200bn (€155bn) reserve. We are nearing the point where the IMF may have to print money for the world, using arcane powers to issue Special Drawing Rights. (money out of nothing, debt based!!!)
Its $16bn rescue of Ukraine has unraveled. The country – facing a 12pc contraction in GDP after the collapse of steel prices – is hurtling towards default, leaving Unicredit, Raffeisen and ING in the lurch. Pakistan wants another $7.6bn. Latvia's central bank governor has declared his economy "clinically dead" after it shrank 10.5pc in the fourth quarter. Protesters have smashed the treasury and stormed parliament.
Somehow the myth persists that the Euro will be the world's reserve currency. The "somehow" usually stems from those who believe in the tooth fairy and global decoupling while staring straight into a magic mirror that only highlights the problems in the US. Here is a better question....
Can The Euro Survive?
John Mauldin explores that question in his latest Outside The Box: Can The Euro Survive?
Milton Friedman famously predicted that the euro would not last past their first economic crisis. This week we look at commentary by Niels Jensen that explores the news from Euroland. Can the euro survive? He explores a number of options which are most definitely not on the radar screen for most investors. It is good to get a perspective from those outside of our own back yard. Note that when he says "our country" he is referring to Great Britain.
Do BRICs (and Germans) Eat PIGS?
When the euro was introduced about ten years ago, the pessimists didn't give it much chance of reaching its tenth anniversary. The euro, or so the argument went, was doomed from the outset because of the wide spread in economic performance and discipline amongst the member countries. At one end you had, and still have, the highly disciplined, but also slow growing, economies of Germany and the Netherlands. At the other end you find the faster growing but poorly disciplined countries such as Spain and Greece. As icing on the cake, you also had, and still have, countries that lack in both departments, such as Italy, making it difficult for the union to 'gel' - well, according to sceptics.
What they [the skeptics] failed to realise was that Europe, together with the rest of the world, was about to enter a period of unprecedented prosperity. The good times would not only gloss over the deeper problems, but the euro would actually go from strength to strength to a point where it now threatens to unseat the US dollar as the premier reserve currency of the world. It is therefore perhaps a mystery to some of you, why one should question the longer term viability of the euro. That is nevertheless what I intend to do.
The problem, as I have already alluded to, is poor discipline amongst several of the member states. Ever heard of the four PIGS? This less than flattering acronym stands for Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, four members of the euro zone which are all in much deeper trouble than they are prepared to admit.
Since the introduction of the euro, the PIGS have failed miserably to keep up with Germany on this measure of competitiveness. So has Ireland by the way, hence its current predicament.
Another issue, which is potentially even more destabilising for the euro longer term, is the massive liabilities facing Europe as its population ages.
Greece is clearly facing the biggest challenge. Public debt, which currently stands at about 95% of GDP, will grow to a whopping 555% of GDP by 2050 if the current pension and social security programme is left unchanged. The Greek government is painfully aware of this and have been working on several new initiatives. It was the passing of one of those new laws which caused the riots in Athens before Christmas.
A third problem facing Europe is the sheer scale of the banking crisis. Although this is not just a European problem, European countries are probably worse off than the US because a larger part of European debt has to be financed externally. As you can see from chart 1, more than $2 trillion of European and U.S. bank debt needs to be re-financed before the end of next year. Unless there is a material improvement in market conditions, re-financing at such a massive scale is simply not doable.
Maturing Bank Securities in 2009/10 (USD)
Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart published a research paper about a month ago which should be mandatory reading for all investors2. They have studied every single banking crisis of the past 100 years and reach some rather unsettling conclusions. As they point out: "Broadly speaking, financial crises are protracted affairs".
Following a banking crisis, asset prices fall more and for longer than most investors realise. So do output and unemployment. Most importantly, though, the real value of government debt explodes but not for the reasons you might think. Yes, the bailout costs are significant, but the main driver of rising government debt is actually the subsequent collapse of tax income. [Mish note: See article for charts]
So when we are told that the bailout cost, although large, is still manageable, it is only half the story. The loss of tax revenue is another nail in the coffin and could lead to a dramatic - and unpredicted - rise in public debt. Have you heard any mention of that from your government?
In Frankfurt, the 'eurocrats' are currently congratulating themselves that they, through strict monetary discipline, killed inflation in the aftermath of last year's explosion in commodity prices. The reality, however, is that the credit crunch killed inflation - they didn't - and Europe is now at a junction where even the smallest policy mistake could be very expensive indeed.
So, could all this lead to the destruction of the euro? Could the currency union actually break up? It is not that the risk to the PIGS has not been recognised by bond investors. As you can see from chart 3 below, investors in long dated Greek government bonds now earn about 2.5% more than they do by investing in correspondent German bunds.
PIGS Sovereign Debt Spreads over Germany
On the other hand, I may disappoint one or two readers (I will certainly disappoint Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Daily Telegraph who appears to have declared war on the euro), but I firmly believe that the euro will almost certainly survive the current crisis. I am much more worried about some of the member countries.
There is nothing in the Maastricht treaty which prevents a member country from leaving the euro, yet the decision to join is effectively irreversible. There are a number of reasons for this, the most important being economic costs. Take Italy which has a history of compensating for lost competitiveness through regular devaluations. If Berlusconi did the unthinkable tomorrow (sorry - nothing is unthinkable in Berlusconi's world), Italy's borrowing costs would explode. My guess is that bond investors would demand double digit returns on a Lira denominated bond to compensate for the dramatically increased devaluation risk. Already in a precarious fiscal position, Italy could quite simply not afford that.
So, if any country were to leave the euro, it would more likely be from a position of strength, and only one country possesses enough strength to pull that off in the current environment. That country is Germany. And, although the euro is not particularly popular in Germany, I believe it is extremely unlikely for Germany to make such a move unilaterally.
At the same time, the fact that the euro has saved the bacon of more than one country in recent months - Ireland being the most obvious example - should not be ignored. For this very reason, the euro membership is actually far more likely to grow than to shrink as a result of the financial and economic crisis engulfing the world. The issue the EU has to deal with is whether the new applicants should actually be welcomed. Most of those who would want to join will bring plenty of baggage.
Another possible outcome, which you hear almost no mention of, is the possibility of a new Transatlantic currency. When I mention this possibility, everyone laughs, but think about it for a second. The economic crisis on both sides of the Atlantic is enormous. Both are resorting to the same formulas - large fiscal stimulus and quantitative easing (a word invented by central bankers because 'printing money' smacks too much of Zimbabwe). There is a real risk that the entire financial and monetary system on either side of the pond needs to be re-designed. If that were to happen, I am pretty confident that the Fed and the ECB would at least sit down and discuss the possibility of a joint currency. That would also allow the UK to join a currency union without too much egg on its battered face.
In the short to medium term, though, there is no such bailout on the horizon. D-day is now firmly on the horizon. As I see things, it is not inconceivable that a member country could be forced to default on its sovereign debt.
Another, and more likely, outcome is the possibility of one or more member countries coming under EU administration. The recent crowd trouble in Greece could very well turn out to be the dry run for much bigger and more organised labour market unrest across Europe as reality begins to bite.
For the time being, though, European governments continue to be in denial. When the IMF recently recommended that Spain implement various structural reforms, the idea was flatly rejected by Prime Minister Zapatero. In the meantime, you can sit back and prepare for the drama to unfold. Very simplistically, it is a choice between Zimbabwe and Japan. Our central bankers can choose to monetize their way out of the current slump and run the risk of much higher interest rates and a rapidly deteriorating currency like Zimbabwe or they can show fiscal discipline and accept perhaps ten years of below par growth a la Japan. Or they can find the delicate balance in between the two and everyone will live happily thereafter. But that requires both skill and luck.
Those are long snips from a very long article that is worth a read in entirety. In aggregate, my take is that the Eurozone, the UK, and the US all face similar problems, and many countries are in far worse shape than the US. And while Italy is likely to do a lot of sabre rattling, none of the PIGS are apt to be so foolish as to leave the European Union.
However, there is going to be increasing pressure on Germany to bailout the other Eurozone countries yet there is no reason to think they will (or should) oblige.
One of the consequences of the Mad Race to ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) is that Japan, the UK, US, and EU all have interest rates at or approaching zero. Thus a big reason to enter various carry trades has gone up in smoke.
On the plate now is a meltdown possibility in US banks, UK banks, and Eurozone banks as the entire global banking system is insolvent. Conceivably a framework for a new transatlantic or even global currency could come out of such a meltdown.
However, it is impossible to agree to a solution when Central Bankers do not even understand the problem. The problem is micromanagement of interests rates and currencies by central bankers in conjunction with fractional reserve lending and deficit spending everywhere. Right now, president Obama, Bernanke, and nearly every politician and central bank in the world is focused on curing symptoms instead of curing the disease.
[www.mediafire.com] Some say you should click it, you know you want to.
[www.gp4central.com] <----GP4 CentralTHE COMING CHANGES
There will be a new monetary system installed which would change the world completely and how we interact on that level.
My info comes from Ben Fulford and what he has been saying for many months now. He has been talking about an announcement coming soon...within the time of the Inauguration maybe until Feb...that window.
Ben Fulford has sources in many places, especially in Japan and China.
He calls the West, particularly the USA the Heart of Darkness. So censored we have no idea what is really happening in the world even with our peep hole of alternative news.
This economic change would mean that the Rothschilds and Rockefellers have been overcome, and released their hold on the world economy.
It would mean freedom on a lot of levels.
They may not be gone forever, having their little world of wealth, but they would not control thru central banks anymore.
New tech would be released to ease our lives, etc.
Merkle(Germany) and Sarkozy(France) came out and said that no one government would have control of the world's economy ever again.
That is a big statement!
The G-20 are formulating this plan and US will either come along or be left behind. New players there...India, Brazil, China, Russia....
The elites are fighting this hard...look at the world!
They are trying to maintain control by creating possible WW3.
It is not a cake walk as we are seeing. But they cannot win if the world will not be baited and will not accept the dollar.
The reorganization will understandably create stress, but hopefully we can all handle it by helping each other and hanging tough.
So I am waiting to see when there will be this sort of announcement.
The total US$ debt is 65.5 Trillion dollars, it exceeds the worlds GDP! Obama signed in the bailout package, but it is already too little too late.
[www.mediafire.com] Some say you should click it, you know you want to. [www.gp4central.com] <----GP4 Central
There will be a new monetary system installed which would change the world completely and how we interact on that level.
My info comes from Ben Fulford and what he has been saying for many months now. He has been talking about an announcement coming soon...within the time of the Inauguration maybe until Feb...that window.
Ben Fulford has sources in many places, especially in Japan and China.
He calls the West, particularly the USA the Heart of Darkness. So censored we have no idea what is really happening in the world even with our peep hole of alternative news.
This economic change would mean that the Rothschilds and Rockefellers have been overcome, and released their hold on the world economy.
It would mean freedom on a lot of levels.
They may not be gone forever, having their little world of wealth, but they would not control thru central banks anymore.
New tech would be released to ease our lives, etc.
Merkle(Germany) and Sarkozy(France) came out and said that no one government would have control of the world's economy ever again.
That is a big statement!
The G-20 are formulating this plan and US will either come along or be left behind. New players there...India, Brazil, China, Russia....
The elites are fighting this hard...look at the world!
They are trying to maintain control by creating possible WW3.
It is not a cake walk as we are seeing. But they cannot win if the world will not be baited and will not accept the dollar.
The reorganization will understandably create stress, but hopefully we can all handle it by helping each other and hanging tough.
So I am waiting to see when there will be this sort of announcement.
The total US$ debt is 65.5 Trillion dollars, it exceeds the worlds GDP! Obama signed in the bailout package, but it is already too little too late.
[www.mediafire.com] Some say you should click it, you know you want to.
[www.gp4central.com] <----GP4 CentralThose who created so called Israel are those who now own America since 1933 when she was handed over as the collateral of default to the Jewish International World Banks. Therefore, those owning both command both and there is no difference between the two in real terms. Needless to say, those within the "country without walls" have the great walls of their own deceptions to keep them imprisoned as cannon fodder for their masters, the Jewish International Bankers.
Read the United States Congressional Record of March 17th 1993, Vol. 33, page H-1303 where James Traficant Jr. of Ohio told the House:
"It is an established fact that the United States Federal Government has been dissolved by the Emergency Banking Act, March 9, 1933, 48 Stat. 1, Public Law 89-719; declared by President Roosevelt, being bankrupt and insolvent.
H.J.R. 192, 73rd congress m session June 5, 1933 Joint Resolution to Suspend the Gold Standard and Abrogate the Gold Clause dissolved the Sovereign Authority of the United States and the official capacities of ALL United States Governmental Offices, Officers, and Departments and is further evidence that the United States Federal Government exists today in name ONLY.
"The receivers of the United States Bankruptcy are the International Bankers, via the United Nations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. ALL United States Offices, Officials, and Departments are now operating within a de facto status in name ONLY under Emergency War Powers. With the Constitutional Republican form of Government now DISSOLVED, the receivers of the Bankruptcy have adopted a new form of government for the United States.
This new form of government is known as a DEMOCRACY, being an established Socialist/Communist order under a new governor for America. This act was instituted and established by transferring and/or placing the Office of the Secretary of Treasury to that of the Governor of the International Monetary Fund. Public Law 94-564, page 8, Section H.R. 13955 reads in part: 'The US Secretary of Treasury receives NO compensation for representing the United States'.
Oh yes, head for the hills. There's a lot we are not being told. Do some research, look up climate change, ice age, 2012, economic collapse, martial law, disclosure project. The best advice is to get out of the cities. Grow your own food and become self sufficient re food and energy. Buy weapons and ammo, stock up non perishables, clothing etc. Not having sewerage is not a problem, you can make a self composting toilet and recycle the waste, I have one on the property here, as well as a dual flush toilet connected to an underground septic tank. There is a lot of lunatic fringe and crackpot theories going around out there as to what is in store. Take your pic, choose your DOOM lol.
[www.mediafire.com] Some say you should click it, you know you want to. [www.gp4central.com] <----GP4 Central
Read the United States Congressional Record of March 17th 1993, Vol. 33, page H-1303 where James Traficant Jr. of Ohio told the House:
"It is an established fact that the United States Federal Government has been dissolved by the Emergency Banking Act, March 9, 1933, 48 Stat. 1, Public Law 89-719; declared by President Roosevelt, being bankrupt and insolvent.
H.J.R. 192, 73rd congress m session June 5, 1933 Joint Resolution to Suspend the Gold Standard and Abrogate the Gold Clause dissolved the Sovereign Authority of the United States and the official capacities of ALL United States Governmental Offices, Officers, and Departments and is further evidence that the United States Federal Government exists today in name ONLY.
"The receivers of the United States Bankruptcy are the International Bankers, via the United Nations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. ALL United States Offices, Officials, and Departments are now operating within a de facto status in name ONLY under Emergency War Powers. With the Constitutional Republican form of Government now DISSOLVED, the receivers of the Bankruptcy have adopted a new form of government for the United States.
This new form of government is known as a DEMOCRACY, being an established Socialist/Communist order under a new governor for America. This act was instituted and established by transferring and/or placing the Office of the Secretary of Treasury to that of the Governor of the International Monetary Fund. Public Law 94-564, page 8, Section H.R. 13955 reads in part: 'The US Secretary of Treasury receives NO compensation for representing the United States'.
Oh yes, head for the hills.
There's a lot we are not being told. Do some research, look up climate change, ice age, 2012, economic collapse, martial law, disclosure project. The best advice is to get out of the cities. Grow your own food and become self sufficient re food and energy. Buy weapons and ammo, stock up non perishables, clothing etc. Not having sewerage is not a problem, you can make a self composting toilet and recycle the waste, I have one on the property here, as well as a dual flush toilet connected to an underground septic tank. There is a lot of lunatic fringe and crackpot theories going around out there as to what is in store. Take your pic, choose your DOOM lol.[www.mediafire.com] Some say you should click it, you know you want to.
[www.gp4central.com] <----GP4 Central
Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.