Tuesday: US Election - Predictions

Kerry steamrolled the opposition in the globalvote2004.org vote, scooping 77% of the votes from around the world. His total of 87446 votes was considerably higher than Bush's 10221, which earned him 9% of the votes.

Just goes to show that the world wants Kerry to win...

too be honnest im rather loosing interest in the whole thing, its not about polecys, national, ecconomic or even world issues (you could argue) because its just a bloody slagging match, and glorified popularity contest with everyone contradicting themselfs and sucking up to get as many votes as possable.

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24 Heures Du Mans 18-19 June 2005

But isn't that what this forum is about?

Bush doesn't need to bribe in Florida, his brother is the governor

as much i don't like Kerry or Bush....i really think the world needs a change so i'm voting for Kerry

Iraq was a mistake, own up to it

we need to introduce democracy slowly to countries, not take over and insist on our form of govt

looks like george will win it.
with Ohio leaning to bush, those 20 vote will give him 271.

Bush. 2,452,234
Kerry 2,335,261
87% precincts reporting

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Tony

NBC and (suprise suprise) FOX News have called it for Bush.

Not looking too good at the moment I'm afraid.

Just been browsing both NYTimes.com and Electoral-vote.com and it looks at the moment that the states that most of the states that have had a result declared were predicted to go that way. Most of the states yet to announce results are predicted to be won by Kerry.

It could still be tight lads.

HE'S turned the tables in iowa so it looks comfortable now.



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Tony

At least this doesn't matter, the real votes will come much later on *gulps*.
Let's hope the electoral college doesn't listen to the people, and elect Kerry.

Latest count puts Bush head 249 t Kerry's 211 EC votes.

Washington Post reports that the race as even up. Still favouring Bush, but the EV count is now 249 - 242

Nevada - 5 votes
349 789 - Bush
333 957 - Kerry
82% counted

NewMexico - 5 votes
275 386 - Bush
245 804 - Kerry
96% counted

Iowa - 7 votes
730 649 - Bush
719 029 - Kerry
98% counted

Wisconsin - 10 votes
1 345 817 - Bush
1 364 611 - Kerry
92% counted

Ohio - 20 votes
2 739 009 - Bush
2 600 056 - Kerry
98% counted



that makes it:
Bush. 286
Kerry 252

Not even close enough for any lawsuits :|

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Tony

Wouldn't discount Wisconsin yet, or Nevada. It could still swing.

Plus there's the postal and ex-pat votes that haven't been counted yet.

geez how about a spoiler alert? :P

*SPOILER*













































Bush Wins!! Thats me happy for the day

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AMD Athlon 64 3200+, 1024mb PC3200 GeIL Goldern Dragon RAM, ATi Sapphire X800 256mb, Windows XP



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/03/2004 09:23AM by mad otter.

Just take a look at this. Bias in the media if ever I saw it.
FOX News


CNN


EDIT: Fox News has given Ohio to Bush, while every other news agency is leaving it as undecided.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/03/2004 09:29AM by Bernie The Bolt.

cnn has had it 'too close to call' which i guessed means it goes to a recount.
anyone know the recount rules for these states?
bush has more than 4mil more votes than kerry, so it looks like he's the peoples choice - we wouldn't want the guy with least popular votes to be president after all would we

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Tony

If Kerry takes Wisconsin, and Bush takes all the others, then whoever gets Ohio wins. As such, expect a lot of legal wrangling around Ohio and whether to count/use the provisional ballot papers.

At Present (using CNN data), the campaigns have the following Votes - the states under each name are not declared yet, but the CNN data suggests that they will go this way:

BUSH: 249
Nevada..5
New Mex.5
Iowa....7

Equals 266


KERRY: 242
Wiscon...10

Equals 252

As Ohio will be challenged, its result will tip the balance for the Presidency.

Kerry must hold Wisconsin to have a chance of the presidency, or a total of 10ecv (NM and NV). If Kerry loses Wisconsin but takes Iowa, the best Kerry could get would be a 269-269 tie, in which case Bush would get reelected by the House of Representatives.

Ohio will be challenged if the number of provisional ballots logged is higher than the difference between the two candidates, as is likely. This is Kerrys last chance. I rate his chance of success at 30% max but he has to try.



RedSam
Winner: Not the Nickv Comment of the Year 2009
Due to the voting system in Germany, Governments are always made up of coalitions of different parties. At the last election, an almost unprecidented result saw the CDU/CSU (rough equivilant of the Conservatives) go into Government with the SPD (rough equivilant of Labour)

Been wondering when you would turn up today Red. Pub's been a bit empty of late, maybe I should turn that FOX News coverage of the election off?

I been over a mates watching the results coming in. Fox News have called Ohio for Bush, NBC followed i think.

BUt the others are leaving it too close to call as it is likely that Kerry will challenge the result to make the provisional ballots be counted.

This could benefit Kerry, and a state wide recount could take place. All in all, with voting machines out of order, REpublicans being accused of intimidating voters, the elections officer for Ohio claiming that voters after the polls had closed who were queuing wouldnt have their vote counted, queues to get into the polling booth for hours potentially putting voters off voting - this could go on for a while.....



RedSam
Winner: Not the Nickv Comment of the Year 2009
Due to the voting system in Germany, Governments are always made up of coalitions of different parties. At the last election, an almost unprecidented result saw the CDU/CSU (rough equivilant of the Conservatives) go into Government with the SPD (rough equivilant of Labour)