With 5 races left!
Posted by chet
What can we expect?
We've had a season of two halves, Brawn and RedBull domination upto Turkey, then Ferrari, and come on a little stronger with Williams, Renault and Force India in the mix also.
Jenson and Ross are going to be very very greatful for the fantastic first 7 races Button did, making use of his car, and RedBull mistakes and lack of Mclarens/Ferraris. But now he has to fight.
Alot of us said the season would be over well before Abu Dhabi but that doesnt seem to be case. Force India have sprung a suprise by taking perhaps the 2nd most supprising result after Australia. I dont think now we can say, RedBull or Brawn for wins and we have to look at the rest.
5 races remain, Monza, Singapore, Suzuka
, Interlagos, and Abu Dhabi.
3/4 races ago it would be a safe bet to say either Button, Barachello, Webber or Vettel.
Each track has diffuerent characteristics, Monza high speed with very heavy braking zones, perfect for KERS. Singapore, similar to Valencia, slow/medium speed corners with heavy braking, KERS will not be such an advantage here, too many accerleration points for 6 seconds to matter IMO, all about braking and traction. Suzuka, first sector dominated by downforce and a cars change of direction ability, the rest is highspeed and quite heavy braking. Interlargos, traction perhaps most important here, braking stability also a big part. Abu Dhabi is an unknown. Two long straights with tight corners following them.
Who's gonna win the next races and eventually take the championship?
My opinion is that if Button does not beat his 3 rivals, and has another bad result he will not win, and Barachello will. However, I think Button will win at Singapore and Abu Dhabi, Rubens will for sure win Interlargos, Hamilton will take Monza (easy IMO) and perhaps a RedBull 1-2 at Suzuka, lead by Webber.
I think providing Monza goes okay, Button will take the WDC, adn Brawn the WCC. If Monza is bad Rubens will thrive and get better and better and take his first WDC, WCC will be close but Brawn takr that too. Either way it will go down to the wire.
The main worry for both Brawn and RedBull is that unlike before where a bad day would put them still 3rd/4th, now a bad day could see them out the points. Both teams to win the WDC and WCC will need to be top form! Vettel adn Rubens seem most on it and head-strong atm.
Your thoughts on the remaining races?
edit.
Monza
Singapore
&feature=related
Suzuka
Interlargos
&feature=PlayList&p=155AAE5D7DD9453B&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=6
"Trulli was slowing down like he wanted to have a picnic" LOL
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/31/2009 08:34PM by chet.
We've had a season of two halves, Brawn and RedBull domination upto Turkey, then Ferrari, and come on a little stronger with Williams, Renault and Force India in the mix also.
Jenson and Ross are going to be very very greatful for the fantastic first 7 races Button did, making use of his car, and RedBull mistakes and lack of Mclarens/Ferraris. But now he has to fight.
Alot of us said the season would be over well before Abu Dhabi but that doesnt seem to be case. Force India have sprung a suprise by taking perhaps the 2nd most supprising result after Australia. I dont think now we can say, RedBull or Brawn for wins and we have to look at the rest.
5 races remain, Monza, Singapore, Suzuka
, Interlagos, and Abu Dhabi.3/4 races ago it would be a safe bet to say either Button, Barachello, Webber or Vettel.
Each track has diffuerent characteristics, Monza high speed with very heavy braking zones, perfect for KERS. Singapore, similar to Valencia, slow/medium speed corners with heavy braking, KERS will not be such an advantage here, too many accerleration points for 6 seconds to matter IMO, all about braking and traction. Suzuka, first sector dominated by downforce and a cars change of direction ability, the rest is highspeed and quite heavy braking. Interlargos, traction perhaps most important here, braking stability also a big part. Abu Dhabi is an unknown. Two long straights with tight corners following them.
Who's gonna win the next races and eventually take the championship?
My opinion is that if Button does not beat his 3 rivals, and has another bad result he will not win, and Barachello will. However, I think Button will win at Singapore and Abu Dhabi, Rubens will for sure win Interlargos, Hamilton will take Monza (easy IMO) and perhaps a RedBull 1-2 at Suzuka, lead by Webber.
I think providing Monza goes okay, Button will take the WDC, adn Brawn the WCC. If Monza is bad Rubens will thrive and get better and better and take his first WDC, WCC will be close but Brawn takr that too. Either way it will go down to the wire.
The main worry for both Brawn and RedBull is that unlike before where a bad day would put them still 3rd/4th, now a bad day could see them out the points. Both teams to win the WDC and WCC will need to be top form! Vettel adn Rubens seem most on it and head-strong atm.
Your thoughts on the remaining races?
edit.
Monza
Singapore
&feature=related
Suzuka
Interlargos
&feature=PlayList&p=155AAE5D7DD9453B&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=6
"Trulli was slowing down like he wanted to have a picnic" LOL
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/31/2009 08:34PM by chet.
Wow, it's going to be tough, RBR have the backing financially to be able to develop their car at a greater pace, but of course THEY have the mountain to climb because not only of Brawn's points advantage, but also they're running out of fresh engines.
Button's got to up his game, he might have around 19 pts advantage over Vettel and 20.5 over Webber, but only 16 over Barichello, if Button fails to score, and Rubens wins, it would be impossible logically for Brawn to favour him, and if RBR decide to favour one of their guys, it could be tricky.
I do however doubt that there will be any type of favouritism, at least not before Japan anyway. I can't really see either team favouring a driver UNLESS the opposite of what I mentioned earlier happens, and it's Button who increases the gap over Rubens by 10. But the gap between the RBR guys is still too close.
As for the races themselves, well.... From what we've seen with 6 drivers winning 6 races and Fissi coming ever so close, it'll be VERY hard to predict, throw in some rain somewhere, and we're in for some fun and games.
Also, don't forget with what happened with Alonso last year, winless for so long, then all of a sudden, POW!, wins in Singapore and Japan. I think it's not just about outright wins, CONSISTENCY is way more important.
As much as I'd like to see a Red Bull driver take the title, I reckon it looks like Jenson will get it, this is like quite a few of Scumacher's titles, even though things didn't quite go right mid-season, there is such a cushion, he still squeaked through.
Button's got to up his game, he might have around 19 pts advantage over Vettel and 20.5 over Webber, but only 16 over Barichello, if Button fails to score, and Rubens wins, it would be impossible logically for Brawn to favour him, and if RBR decide to favour one of their guys, it could be tricky.
I do however doubt that there will be any type of favouritism, at least not before Japan anyway. I can't really see either team favouring a driver UNLESS the opposite of what I mentioned earlier happens, and it's Button who increases the gap over Rubens by 10. But the gap between the RBR guys is still too close.
As for the races themselves, well.... From what we've seen with 6 drivers winning 6 races and Fissi coming ever so close, it'll be VERY hard to predict, throw in some rain somewhere, and we're in for some fun and games.
Also, don't forget with what happened with Alonso last year, winless for so long, then all of a sudden, POW!, wins in Singapore and Japan. I think it's not just about outright wins, CONSISTENCY is way more important.
As much as I'd like to see a Red Bull driver take the title, I reckon it looks like Jenson will get it, this is like quite a few of Scumacher's titles, even though things didn't quite go right mid-season, there is such a cushion, he still squeaked through.
This season everything is going to go down the wire with Jenson having one last chance to get it all together and seal it all up. Dad and I were just discussing this just yesterday about him as he's scraping through these last few races.
Another negative for Jenson is the fact that Rubens has also got the best out of the car due to his aggressive driving style and thus he's getting the most out of the tyres. Honestly, I want Rubens to win the championship because it's his last chance and he's never driven better apart from the Ferrari days which he was already hampered by his verbal agreements. I mean even from the TV pictures and his attitude he's feeling alot happier and that the weight has been lifted from his shoulders.
Looking at all four contenders all four of them have their disadvantages.
Jenson - Can't get the best out of the car
Rubens - Clutch problems at the start
Sebastian - Not enough engines
Mark - Doubts of Reliability and being in the wrong place at the wrong time. (Nurburgring & Spa - Drive Throughs even though he won in Germany)
But all this just remains on Dry Grand Prix and getting good starts and having a good strategy and getting off the start line and blasting it for the first few laps. Throw wet a couple of wet GPs, Safety Cars or just reliability. It all tumbles.
Let's see how it goes
Another negative for Jenson is the fact that Rubens has also got the best out of the car due to his aggressive driving style and thus he's getting the most out of the tyres. Honestly, I want Rubens to win the championship because it's his last chance and he's never driven better apart from the Ferrari days which he was already hampered by his verbal agreements. I mean even from the TV pictures and his attitude he's feeling alot happier and that the weight has been lifted from his shoulders.
Looking at all four contenders all four of them have their disadvantages.
Jenson - Can't get the best out of the car
Rubens - Clutch problems at the start
Sebastian - Not enough engines
Mark - Doubts of Reliability and being in the wrong place at the wrong time. (Nurburgring & Spa - Drive Throughs even though he won in Germany)
But all this just remains on Dry Grand Prix and getting good starts and having a good strategy and getting off the start line and blasting it for the first few laps. Throw wet a couple of wet GPs, Safety Cars or just reliability. It all tumbles.
Let's see how it goes
Agree 100% with you Dave
Races: 163 - Wins: 23 - Pole Positions: 24 - Fastest Laps: 22
Season 9: Constructors' Champions
Races: 163 - Wins: 23 - Pole Positions: 24 - Fastest Laps: 22
Season 9: Constructors' Champions
i think that at monza it will be Kimi with another victory with rubens second and Fernando thrid.It would be nice to see fisi in old days at ferrari and he will be as good as he was at Renault(0506).vettel will have an engine failure because that Redbull Punks do not deserve to have the Renault Engine. (by the way did you guys saw any engine failures at Renault).Singapore will be very close because it is up to the driver just like monaco,so there will be saftey car a lot of crashes and so i think at singapore it will be Rubens taking the win second goes to jenson and third to fernando.Vettel this punk ass is going to crash and webber will somwhere in the points.For Suzuka i think it will be webber 1st barrichello 2nd and again fernando 3rd.At Interlagosit will be Rubens taking the victory jenson vettel and webber crash or fall out in a other way second will be maybe the returning felipe or kimi third place goes to trulli because before he is leaving toyota he shows the what they are throw out. For Abu Dhabi i dont know the only two things i hope for are that fernando wins and rubens or jenson takes the championship so that this stupid vettel doesent win.I dont like this guy.he is called as the next schumi ha what a joke.The only guy can be called next schumi is fernando but even he is not schumi cause he ist fernando and schumi was simply "schummel schumi".So thats my opinion.Nothing against all of the other guys."So have a nice day"
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"And thats the bottom line cause Alonso0506 said so"
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"And thats the bottom line cause Alonso0506 said so"
It will certainly be a very interesting championship battle, with any team capable of a good result!
I think Red Bull still have the speed to chase down Brawn, but they can't afford any more silly errors. The fact that Williams, Ferrari, McLaren, Force India etc. are battling for the podium will help Brawn, because there are less points for Red Bull to get.
For Rubens, Jenson and Mark, this is probably their last realistic championship chance, as I would be very surprised if a Ferrari or McLaren didn't win the championship next year.
The problem for both teams now is that their drivers will start taking points off each other. The Red Bull drivers are now closer together in the points, which means they are further away from making a decision. A retirement would be the end for their championship hopes now, providing the other drivers score well. The pressure is probably on Webber now at Monza. He has been the consistent one through the middle of the year, but has now fallen back. But Rubens has shown how quickly a driver can come back in the standings.
X (@ed24f1)
I think Red Bull still have the speed to chase down Brawn, but they can't afford any more silly errors. The fact that Williams, Ferrari, McLaren, Force India etc. are battling for the podium will help Brawn, because there are less points for Red Bull to get.
For Rubens, Jenson and Mark, this is probably their last realistic championship chance, as I would be very surprised if a Ferrari or McLaren didn't win the championship next year.
The problem for both teams now is that their drivers will start taking points off each other. The Red Bull drivers are now closer together in the points, which means they are further away from making a decision. A retirement would be the end for their championship hopes now, providing the other drivers score well. The pressure is probably on Webber now at Monza. He has been the consistent one through the middle of the year, but has now fallen back. But Rubens has shown how quickly a driver can come back in the standings.
X (@ed24f1)
Nickv Wrote:
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> Imagine how the championship would've looked like
> if this stupid medal idea had gone through. Vettel
> could only become champion then if he'd win all
> the remaining races. Instead of this, we currently
> have a near four way run for the championship. In
> your face, Mr Ecclestone!
Not true. Webber, Barrichello, Hamilton and Raikkonen would also be in contention, as if they won every race from now until the end they would have 6 wins and more 2nd places than Jenson (he has none).
So therefore, the medal system would have allowed for a 6-way championship!
But yes, there is absolutely no way the medal system would provide better championship battles - at least in the recent years.
X (@ed24f1)
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/01/2009 11:11AM by SchueyFan.
-------------------------------------------------------
> Imagine how the championship would've looked like
> if this stupid medal idea had gone through. Vettel
> could only become champion then if he'd win all
> the remaining races. Instead of this, we currently
> have a near four way run for the championship. In
> your face, Mr Ecclestone!
Not true. Webber, Barrichello, Hamilton and Raikkonen would also be in contention, as if they won every race from now until the end they would have 6 wins and more 2nd places than Jenson (he has none).
So therefore, the medal system would have allowed for a 6-way championship!
But yes, there is absolutely no way the medal system would provide better championship battles - at least in the recent years.
X (@ed24f1)
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/01/2009 11:11AM by SchueyFan.
Button really taking addvantage of a poor Ferrari/Mclaren in the first half has proved invaluable for him.
At a time when RedBull could get it all together, Rubens wasnt doing great Jenson was the one collecting wins, getting his buffer.
He may have had a shite 5 races gone but before Spa he was the only driver to finish every race adn in the points, add that to 6 wins and he's done exactly what he needed to do. A drop in form such as this had to be expected from him, along with the rise of Mclaren and Ferrari, and apparently the rest too!!! Brundle always says it but, its crucial to get the points in early in the season.
Button's biggest issue at the moment is qualifying. In the race I think he'll be as quick as ever, getting it right over one lap has always been his problem, and even the early season this year has been no exception. Difference now is the tenth or two he cant get to Rubens ends up being pretty close to being out at Q2.
For Monza, the only possibility I see Brawn winning are if they lockout the front row and prevent any KERS cars coming up the inside. Specifically Lewis! Otherwise if Lewis gets by IMO he will gone never to be seen again, until another 50 odd laps later.
I obviously would prefer Jense to get the title, but Rubens would be my other candidate, then maybe Webber. After 2007 and 2008 I never though Button would get the chance to driver a car capable of winning on merit. Just one championship is enough.
"Trulli was slowing down like he wanted to have a picnic" LOL
At a time when RedBull could get it all together, Rubens wasnt doing great Jenson was the one collecting wins, getting his buffer.
He may have had a shite 5 races gone but before Spa he was the only driver to finish every race adn in the points, add that to 6 wins and he's done exactly what he needed to do. A drop in form such as this had to be expected from him, along with the rise of Mclaren and Ferrari, and apparently the rest too!!! Brundle always says it but, its crucial to get the points in early in the season.
Button's biggest issue at the moment is qualifying. In the race I think he'll be as quick as ever, getting it right over one lap has always been his problem, and even the early season this year has been no exception. Difference now is the tenth or two he cant get to Rubens ends up being pretty close to being out at Q2.
For Monza, the only possibility I see Brawn winning are if they lockout the front row and prevent any KERS cars coming up the inside. Specifically Lewis! Otherwise if Lewis gets by IMO he will gone never to be seen again, until another 50 odd laps later.
I obviously would prefer Jense to get the title, but Rubens would be my other candidate, then maybe Webber. After 2007 and 2008 I never though Button would get the chance to driver a car capable of winning on merit. Just one championship is enough.
"Trulli was slowing down like he wanted to have a picnic" LOL
The recent races at Valencia and Spa have taught us one thing without a shadow o a doubt, and that is that no matter how accurate you feel you area, it's been impossible to predict who will do well.
Remember everyone was saying Valencia would be a Brawn circuit, whilst Red Bull were expected to fly at Spa?
My point.
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Remember everyone was saying Valencia would be a Brawn circuit, whilst Red Bull were expected to fly at Spa?
My point.
What can we expect?
A title showdown in Abu Dhabi for definate. That's what Mr.E has promised them, and that's what they shall get.
We desperately need a tyre-war again. I'm starting to suspect 'interferance' from on-high.
A title showdown in Abu Dhabi for definate. That's what Mr.E has promised them, and that's what they shall get.
We desperately need a tyre-war again. I'm starting to suspect 'interferance' from on-high.
marcl Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Button recons the KERS cars will have .6 advantage
> a lap in Italy.
>
> So the best they can hope for is 5th.
The race should be a different matter. Over a single lap KERS will have an addvantage but in the race it certainly wont be 6tenths. The problem I see is, a Brawn/RedBull/FI or whatever will get a run on the exit of parabolica where KERS is useless, pass into the chicane, but on exit the Ferrari/Mclaren will use KERS to full effect. Maybe even at the second chicane. We've seen passing attempts, but the short run is long enough, KERS wil certainly change that imo. The long-range forecast for Monza is looking like an average day. Mid to high 20's.
Peat, tyre war bought a good battle, but then I think the performance was far too dependant on it, bridgestone only concentrated on Ferrari so it made it very unfair. A control tyre is the way to go, and laptime's have been well controlled. A good few seconds of 04 times.
"Trulli was slowing down like he wanted to have a picnic" LOL
-------------------------------------------------------
> Button recons the KERS cars will have .6 advantage
> a lap in Italy.
>
> So the best they can hope for is 5th.
The race should be a different matter. Over a single lap KERS will have an addvantage but in the race it certainly wont be 6tenths. The problem I see is, a Brawn/RedBull/FI or whatever will get a run on the exit of parabolica where KERS is useless, pass into the chicane, but on exit the Ferrari/Mclaren will use KERS to full effect. Maybe even at the second chicane. We've seen passing attempts, but the short run is long enough, KERS wil certainly change that imo. The long-range forecast for Monza is looking like an average day. Mid to high 20's.
Peat, tyre war bought a good battle, but then I think the performance was far too dependant on it, bridgestone only concentrated on Ferrari so it made it very unfair. A control tyre is the way to go, and laptime's have been well controlled. A good few seconds of 04 times.
"Trulli was slowing down like he wanted to have a picnic" LOL
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