Speculation 2014

I'm really looking forward to 2014 and the new formula.

I might actually be relatively unusual in that I've been looking forward to the introduction of the new 1.6 V6 Turbo engines pretty much since their announcement and there's been plenty of negative press about it since.

I'm also looking forward to the inevitable development race, and eagerly awaiting the first big loophole busting aerodynamic device to hit the track. The effective elimination of exhaust blowing and the trimming of the down-force generating wing area will have taken an fair chunk of down-force away from the cars but I'm sure it will be regained as stupidfyingly quickly as ever.

There are many questions about 2014 to answer and I look forward to them being answered.

Red Bull

I think the very fact they retain the best aerodynamist, one of the very best drivers and are effectively the primary (works) Renault team means that Red Bull should be sitting comfortably towards the top of the time-sheets for some time to come yet.

It'll be interesting to see how Ricciardo develops and whether he can push Vettel or not.

There are a few engineers defecting from (or due to) the team now to make names for themselves at other teams. I'll be intrigued to see how strong the team is in depth to see how it maintains it's competitive edge going forward into the next few years.

They're still the team to beat though.

Mercedes

Everything has been geared towards a big push at the title for this year. They've certainly got an impressive engineering line-up and the technical resources to go with it. Ross Brawn will have configured the team to take it's best advantage of the rule changes so it'd be surprising if they weren't at least one of the most competitive teams again this year even with his resignation in favour of a fishing holiday.

The main questions for me though are, can they sustain their curve of improvement? will Lauda, Wolf and Lowe really work as an effective management trio? And can the team finally get a grip on their tyre problems which have harked back to BAR Honda days?

Ferrari

Ferrari are still struggling from the legacy of the restriction on testing. They've got test tracks that they basically can't use and their simulators are behind in sophistication terms to the likes of McLaren for example. They've certainly been taking action to regain some engineering strength in refurbishing and calibrating the wind-tunnel and recruiting some big name engineers.

Apparently Kimi is going to be forced into intensive simulator testing... I think they might have to ply him with Vodka and Ice-cream first.

I don't see Ferrari winning the championship this year, even if their unique in house chassis - engine arangement gives them a natural advantage. I think there will be the odd heroic win for either or both Alonso and Kimi... but Adrian Newey will still design a better chassis and Vettel won't need asking twice to take any win.

Lotus

I think Eric Boullier has a few challenges ahead. First he needs to secure some sensible investment to the team (in addition to Maldonado's contribution). Second he needs to stop this exodus of top engineering personnel to rival teams and third he'll have to tutor Maldonaldo into not being a liability.

Those are some big challenges. But I think the car at least ought to be good again. I hope for Grosjean's sake that the team remain good because it would be a shame for it to collapse around his ears just as he himself has come good.

McLaren

Can they bounce back.. or will 2014 effectively be a year to prepare for Honda? You can never really rule them out from having a properly quick car but with it being over ten years since they took a constructors championship you know that something has to change to renew the philosophy of the team.

The most interesting thing will be seeing how young Magussen does. If he flourishes as is expected then it could spell the end of Button's career. If he doesn't then Button will be the spearhead of Honda's return in 2015.

Force India

Force India have been a "nearly team" for too long now. It's hard seeing them stepping up to mix it up at the sharp end of the grid. But at least if the car is sensible enough then they have a driver pairing in Hulkenberg and Perez who will get good results on any day the car shows form.

Sauber

Another team who need some sensible investors to come forward. It's difficult to envisage Sauber as a team with the ingredients to mix 2014 up if only because of their rather uninspiring driver line-up of Sutil and Gutierrez.

Toro Rosso

On their good days this is a team which will have two cars in the points. On their bad days they'll be fending off Caterham and Marussia. Kyvat looks like he could be a pleasant surprise though.

Williams

Well, they certainly haven't given up. A recruitment drive and the elimination of exhaust blowing are all positive things for Williams. But the team desperately need some engineering stability. I hope they give Symonds the conditions he needs to create a good team to basically re-build the team from scratch. In the short term.. a sensible car is needed.

2014 represents a new start for Massa, he's either going to be brilliant or diabolical.

Marussia and Caterham.

I think reliability is going to be key for these two teams. There's a slight chance of some high attrition in the early races... so they really got to focus on getting the car to the finish from the off, because there could be an opportunity to pick up a point or two which could secure their place above or beneath each in other in the championship. I doubt either are really going to progress into the mid-field though.

Nice preview with a lot of important factor listed. I might add two things in general:

1) Engine power. Any discrepancy between the units will be visible if they're going to be higher than the last few years'. And it's likely they'll be with Mercedes rumoured to be the best, Ferrari risking a lot with a different exhaust design and Renault allegedly lagging behind. In fact, agreeing with you that in terms of aero Red Bull will still likely lead, this is the single most likely factor which could derail another championship for Vettel - Vettel in himself is about the 2nd best driver of the field so he's as well capable of turning the tables even if the car is not the best.

2) Reliability. Not really on the engine front (2006 saw only a slight rise in unreliability despite a new formula), rather on the whole power unit and packaging front. Some seriously innovative technologies are being developed here (channeling exhaust heat energy through a battery to spin the turbo - and possibly to ERS down the straights as well - instead of the road car solution of directly connecting the two) along with some 'old school' techs revisited (turbocharging itself). So how this gets together and gets packaged is indeed a huge reliability issue, I imagine.

I'm also very very spiced up for 2014. I expect it to be something like the 1980s - turbo with huge torque, unreliability, fuel consumption limit and tyre strategy dominating race strategies.