So ahead of the car launches and for want of a better descriptive term 'test season' it's time to talk of our expectations of the year ahead. It could seem foolish to make bold predictions before even seeing a new car but in recent seasons I've enjoyed forecasting the form before it happens instead of waiting to see it happen before I open my wise mouth.
First up, I don't expect a substantial shake up of the current order. Not withstanding revised areodymanics and tyres the engine formula remains the same and with the exception of Toro Rosso who are reverting back to Renault again the field have the same suppliers.
The top three constructors will be the same, in order of Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari. They've simply been able to divert far more resource to the new cars than the rest and although the 'mule cars' were only intended to simulate the expected levels of downforce, there will have been a benefit to the exercise no matter how neglible.
Mercedes will still be top due to a retained powertrain advantage although thanks to the Newey affect allied to quite possibly the strongest driver pairing in F1 and steady improvement by Renault, Red Bull ought to mount a geniune challenge. Hamilton is likely to win the championship relatively comfortably although Bottas could fall prey to Riccardo and Verstappen. Although they could always surprise us, Ferrari will be a distant third. The stability of the Todt/Brawn/Bryne days are long gone and they seem to be ruled by politics once again. I guess the big question is if Vettel can stop whinging over the radio for long enough to reassert himself over Raikkonen.
The midfield could see some change with the big question mark being Honda. If they make a good step forward then McLaren ought to advance well although similar to Ferrari they lack stability at the moment. And this could be their undoing. P4 ought to be a realistic target for them but a good Mercedes boost could still propel Force India and Williams ahead of them. Force India are a strong tight knit team, I think they'll produce another effective package and could well remain ahead of Williams. Williams look forward to the arrival of a paddy Lowe, certainly it'd be good to have him but he's not going to magically covert the team into winners. They need to concentrate on elimating the recent weaknesses and building a good all rounder. Perez - Occon could well be a stronger more reliable lineup than Massa - Stroll too.
Toro Rosso and Renault could be quite nip & tuck. I don't see Toro Rosso taking the fight consistently to the upper midfield as they have a tendency to fade as the season wears on.. They'll have good days of course but they'll be outgunned by Renault who will eventually get their @#$%& together but not in time to threaten the top 5 just yet.
The back of the field will be Hass and Sauber. Hass will have had fewer resources and experience to direct to the new regulations and so will be on the back foot. But they'll still take the odd opportunist points result. Sauber will have a power disadvantage due to running year old engines.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/11/2017 11:08AM by J i m.