Let's speculate a bit

dear F1 community, dear F1 fans,

the new season's about to start and so is the betting on who's gonna take the championship crown. I recently noticed in an internet site, that the coefficient for Rosberg was 34.00 (for schumacher 29.00). Looking at the numbers it is really tempting to put some money on one of the mercedes drivers becoming champion. If you look at simple facts it is worth it:

1) mercedes brought a acouple of new people in the team, all well experienced, all with pretty good achievements in their previous teams.

2) the whole team look positive (unlike ferrari) and even vettel and newey showed concerns about the Merc. team.

3) ross brawn said, that they have no constructive or technical problems in the car and that they've achieved double the mileage they had at the same time last year. Furthermore ross says that he thinks they can give their drivers fast and reliable car. (and unlike hamilton e.g., when ross says something it usually has good arguments for itself)

4) ferrari look really bad and macca havent really shown a form worth mentioning. (although I think that mclaren will have fast car again this year).

5) the only thing that managed to beat newey cars during their dominance(williams mid 90's and mclaren late 90's) was the BRawn-Schumacher combination.


In a nutshell, I think it is worth it putting some money on one of the mercedes drivers becoming a champion. However I would like to hear your opinions on that.


P.S. massa closed the performance gap to alonso towards the end of the last season. Also he usually does pretty well in fast cars (e.g. - 2006,2007,2008). The odds for him wraping up the title are 65:1, which means that puttin 10 euro on him, you'll get 650 if he gets the title.

So, let me know what your opinions on that subject are. Cheers

Vettel for Champion again, Red Bull for Constructors, again.

I also think that for some reason we're not sure about but I suspect may relate to inner workings of Red Bull, Vettel will again cream Webber all year.

This year I'm more interested in what's going on further down the grid: Kimi, Williams, Sauber, Mercedes. I want to see who tomorrow's stars are going to be.

Ferrari will be third team again, I think. Or possibly forth if Merc have done some improving and if that mythical front wing exists.

Mercedes look closer than they were last year, but then they started 2011 quite well too - Rosberg looked a good shout for the win in China before he stuck the hard tyres on and his pace just vanished. But to be honest, I can see a single win at best and even then I think it'll take a freak race (such as Canada last year) and the odds are very much stacked against them.

Ferrari I'm less sure of. All the noises coming from within the team are negative, yet those at trackside have been saying they're looking stronger than they're suggesting, and they don't appear to have done any low fuel runs. We'll see. It looks like they've completely revamped the car, so they should get stronger as the season goes on.

Looking at stint times, Red Bull still look like clear favourites, and if Vettel can have a season half as strong as last season, then it'll still be a gimme.

I have high hopes for Mercedes, but until we see where they are in Australia we won't know i they're going for the championship... i can see Michael on the podium again and probably some competitive performances for the win.. championship?, too early

Mclaren seem the strongest team all around for me, Jenson as i've said before many times will most likely stablish himself as the leader from the go in Australia, hopefully they can have a fair fight with RedBull because let's be honest, they've had it easy the last year and 2010 it was only theirs to loose too.. Ferrari doesn't look good, we've heard too many times how everybody claim they can recover anything but it's been the same story for the last few years.. Alonso imho is still one of if not the best driver out there, but Ferrari are not the team they where with Schumacher and that makes them weak... what bothers me, even being a tifosi is that DiMonteemolo always comes out complaining about rules not being "clear" whenever they don't do good.

so yeah, hopefully Jenson is going to win the championship fingers crossed, but expect some good battles from Mercedes and Red Bull.... the whole marketing story about having 6 champions gives high hopes of close fights but the truth is the best teams will win.

I'm hoping that RedBull will lose some of their performance edge this year so that (1) it's closer and (2) we get to see Vettel racing more against people in cars that are quick enough to give his car a real push(Ideally I'd like to see him get the chance to dominate in an inferior car - he's that good now - but I can't see RedBull suddenly falling that far back in the space of one winter). But, yeah, it's difficult to see anyone else but him winning it again.

I'm hoping Ferrari bounce back, at least to the level of form they showed in 2010. The team sandbagging about the new car's performance so far is actually a pretty good sign. I'm wanting to see Alonso back at the front.

McLaren is probably the most potentially interesting team from a driver perspective. I'm hoping Jenson can continue the frankly stunning transformation and growth that we've seen in him over the last 3 years. The balance of seniority between him and Lewis will be pretty fine, and I'm hoping Lewis will finally start producing his best form consistently this year. I'm not really sure how realistic a hope that is, but it's there. I think him and Jenson are actually very evenly matched, and it'll be fascinating to see their 3rd season as teammates play out.

I'm hoping Mercedes make a big jump forwards. If the car is more competitive I think we'll see a completely different Schumacher to the one we've seen since the start of 2010(With the possible exception of Montreal last year). It'd be good to have a different car challenging for race wins too.

Also I'm excited about how Kimi might go.

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I don't really expect things to change too much, Red bull up top, mclaren a fraction behind. I expect Ferrari and Mercedes to be more equal than before but with Alonso finishing higher than the Merc's consitantly.

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The status quo will be largely maintained with the odd bit of shuffling amongst the midfield.

Red Bull will still be the team to beat with Vettle probably holding onto his reign but Webber will have to run him closer this time. McLaren will be quick but ultimately fall short as usual, both Button and Hamilton will win a race or two apiece. Ferrari will be better than they've looked so far in testing and Alonso will be epic enough to be never ruled out whilst Massa's inconsistency will see them finish behind both Red Bull & McLaren in the constructors.

Mercedes will have some early promising form in which they qualify strongly a couple of times and have a race where they mix it competitively with the big three but mess up the final stint and thereafter fall back to no mans land behind the top teams but ahead of the midfield.

The midfield will be disputed between Force India and Lotus with Sauber and Toro Rosso ocassionally demanding their attention. Williams will mostly fight a rearguard action against Caterham who will be plucky but ultimately fail to crack the midfield just yet.

HRT will be hilarious yet ultimately survive when some random with money usurps De la Rosa sometime mid-season and Karthikeyan may fall prey to another Red Bull protege before long, though they might let him return for the Indian GP.

Lastly Timo Glock will be mostly facedesking his way through the year and probably appear in the DTM in 2013.

J i m Wrote:
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> Lastly Timo Glock will be mostly facedesking his
> way through the year and probably appear in the
> DTM in 2013.

LMAO!

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Its a bit silly to right off Ferrari but their car does look some way behind RbR and Mclaren, tbh I think they are behind Merc, Force India and Lotus as well at the moment.

Will be interesting to see and I really want to see Vettel having to race and pass people.

I'm really hoping Ferrari will come good again this year. If they and Merc are surprise packages I'll be pretty happy.

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Ferrari behind Merc is believable, and maybe Lotus too... but I dont see that happening. I see Merc maybe on par, but tbh Alonso will make it seem like they have a few tenths over Merc at least IMO.

People wonder what percentage role the car plays, and driver. When the car is good, IMO its more car. When the car is bad, thats when the driver will make it count... And if the Ferrari is off pace, count on Alonso to drive it to positions well above the expected.

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"Trulli was slowing down like he wanted to have a picnic" LOL

I'm hoping he has a car that's good enough to challenge for the Championship with again though. It's good seeing him drive a shitty car to results it shouldn't be capable of, but a big part of me wants to see him winning again.
I admit I have a soft spot for Fernando, his passionate nature and fiery temperament resonate deeply with me. And I love a driver who's both gifted and motivated 110% to use said gift as well.

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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/01/2012 02:19AM by EC83.

i think it will be the same as last year, red bull in front with perfect driver vettel - fast and consistent, mclaren nipping at their heals, and often faster - but hamilton will choke again or use his tyres too fast, and button will still not be fast enough, and will rely on battling through the field for podiums as he will qualify too far back. ferrari will be 3rd again with alonso bringing in great results every so often. i think lotus will come back into form and will battle with mercedes for 4th and possibly ferrari. i think raikonnen could put in kubica-2010 like performances. the rest will be tight, with torro roso better then last year, and force india a few times battling and beating lotus and mercedes. williams will be mid-midfield, not bottom midfield. caterham will be ever closer to the midfield, and marussia and hrt will be ever further back.

The scary thing about Vettel is that he's still several years off of his potential prime in terms of age, but he's already a double World Champ. I'm thinking none of Schumacher's records are safe.

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EC83 Wrote:
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> I'm thinking none of Schumacher's records are safe.

I wouldn't call it that early.

mclarenaustralia Wrote:
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> EC83 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I'm thinking none of Schumacher's records are
> safe.
>
> I wouldn't call it that early.

It's pretty obvious, even this early. Vettel could be at the sharp end of F1 for another 15 years, assuming he keeps driving that long. Imagine if he keeps up his present strike rate(or even something vaguely close to it) for even another 10 years.
He's currently on course to smash every record in the book.

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I agree that it's too early to call. For one thing in Alonso, Hamilton, Button & Raikkonen he has stiffer competition than Schumacher had for much of his career.

soo, you say Alonso, Hamilton, Button and raikkonen. hmm. I keep wondering how people just say so easy that schumacher had no competition for the much of his career. He raced against Senna, Mansell and Prost in superior cars 3 years in a row. Than he had 2 years year against superior williams cars (1996,1997) and a stiff competition in the person of Villeneuve (who actually was a great driver at that time ) Afterwards came two superior mclaren cars, especially the 1998 one, and an even better driver and stiffer competition in the face of Hakkinen (who'd outqualified senna for his first ever gp for Macca, how bout that). Later in his career he had montoya as competition, who actually is not far from hamilton as a challenge. As for raikkonen and button and alonso, they all raced during schumacher's career. Especially alonso and raikkonen had super cars in 2005. Alonso had that in the first part of 2006 as well.

Therefore the argument I keep reading here, that Schuey never had a stiff competition is simply ridiculous. But that is simply my opinion of course.

and one last thing.. if you thing the mclaren of 2005 was not super car, simpy because it was breaking all the time, well, actually only kimis car suffered problems. I cant recall even one mechanical failure at montoya's car. even de la rosa and wurz didnt suffer any problems while replacing montoya.

Schumacher did race against Senna, Prost and Mansell, but then seldom in a car realistically capable of beating them (other than the Ferrari on occasion), barring the 2 races he won before Senna's death (ignoring the small matter of the Benetton illegality). For the short time they were together, he did beat Piquet, though somehow I've never thought much of Piquet.

For his titles, Schumacher utterly destroyed Hill (hardly an F1 great), Villeneuve (good driver, but as became clear he wasn't a top one), Hakkinen (who got the better of him more often than not, though usually with a small car advantage), Montoya (bit of the Villeneuves, and epic on his day, but not enough of those days) and Raikkonen (who was in a weaker car every season barring was it 2005, though Schumacher wasn't in the championship that season). I'd say only Hakkinen and Raikkonen were the true tests for Schumacher, though I loved his battles with Montoya.

Today it might be similar. If Vettel is Schumacher, then I see Hamilton as Montoya, Alonso as Hakkinen (though with more drive and perhaps a touch less natural ability), Button as Hill, current day Raikkonen as Villeneuve and Schumacher, so far, hasn't really had the chance of impacting them yet (I too would love to see if he became more motivated if he had a car capable of winning).

Vettel's very capable of smashing Schumacher's records, but Vettel, like Schumacher, will have to contend with seasons where he doesn't have the top car. There'll be more seasons like 2009 to come for him, and that'll be the test - now he's world champion, can he retain a degree of success against stronger packages.